Een 4 graden C. warmere aarde: de effecten voor de mens

Tien jaar geleden hebben vooraanstaande wetenschappers zich gebogen over de vraag wat er zal gebeuren als de aarde in 2055 met 4 graden Celsius zal zijn opgewarmd. Zoals de schrijver van het hieronder opgenomen artikel, Robert Huntziker terecht opmerkt: deze wetenschappers deden dit niet voor de gein, ze waren (en zijn) oprecht bezorgd dat het die kant wel degelijk opgaat met de aarde.....

Intussen zijn er meerdere cumulatieve effecten aan de gang, die de aarde steeds sneller doen opwarmen, zoals het ontdooien van de permafrost in het Arctisch gebied, daarbij komt niet alleen CO2 vrij maar ook enorme hoeveelheden methaangas, een uiterst sterk broeikasgas (sterker dan CO2). Daardoor warmt de aarde nog verder op en ontdooit er nog meer permafrost enz. enz.

Hetzelfde geldt voor het verdwijnen van ijs in het Arctisch gebied, hoe meer ijs er verdwijnt, hoe sneller het zeewater opwarmt , zodat er nog meer ijs verdwijnt (immers ijs en sneeuw weerkaatsen zonlicht)........

Door de opwarming van de aarde en heftiger wordende natuurrampen, verdwijnt er steeds meer bos, zelfs in het arctisch gebied waar temperaturen worden gemeten die de mens nooit heeft meegemaakt en waardoor ook daar bosbranden ontstaan....... Een rookpluim zo groot als een fiks deel van Europa was te zien boven Siberië, nu kampen we dit jaar alleen al met meer dan 73.000 branden in het Amazonegebied, waardoor ook daar de boel steeds verder zal verdrogen en de aarde nog meer opwarmt daar het groene bladerdak is verdwenen.... Ook hierbij kan je spreken van een cumulatief effect.....

Vergeet niet dat een halve graad opwarming van de aarde al een sterfte onder 150 miljoen mensen zal veroorzaken.......*

Lees het volgende artikel en de geschetste rampen (zoals een enorme zeespiegelstijging die half Nederland zal opslokken) die de mens staan te wachten. Geeft het door, we moeten in actie komen, daar langer wachten op de politiek geen optie is, de politiek waar men vooral rekening wenst te houden met de oliemaffia, grote bedrijven, intensieve veehouderij** en andere manieren van geldelijk gewin behalen ten kost van onze kleine planeet!!

Het volgende artikel over deze zaak verscheen eerder op CounterPunch:

AUGUST 23, 2019

Earth 4C Hotter

by ROBERT HUNZIKER

Photograph Source: BrendelSignature – CC BY 3.0

A decade ago several prominent climate scientists discussed the prospects of a 4C Earth. Their concern was qualified “… if greenhouse gases do not slow down, then expect a 4C Earth by 2055.” Of course, that would be catastrophic, and one can only assume those scientists must have recognized real risks. Otherwise, why address the issue of 4C by 2055 in the first instance?

Not only that but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), AR4 (2007) addressed the 4C issue and a 2009 International Climate Conference at Oxford, “4 Degrees and Beyond” discussed the consequences at length, e.g., deserts in southern Europe, sea levels up 2 metres by 2100, unleashing a “carbon time bomb” in the Arctic, half of the world uninhabitable, etc.

Well, well, well…now that greenhouse gas emissions have sped up by 60% since 2010, not slowed down for a minute, the IPCC is talking about holding global average temps to 2.0C, preferably 1.5C, and they say the world has 12 years to tackle global warming (actually, nowadays it’s “global heating” because of massive heat intensity in certain regions of the planet) or all bets are off.

Because prominent scientists addressed the issue of a 4C planet and because climate scientists, in general, are constantly apologizing for being too conservative, too timid in their forecasts as actual climate change buries their predictions with a dagger to the heart, it is a worthwhile exercise to look at a 4C world. It could happen within current lifetimes just like the scientists speculated 10 years ago. But, of course, nobody knows for sure. After all, it helps to brace oneself ahead of time, just in case.

In all, based upon how conservatively low scientists’ predictions have been for so long, maybe 4C is realistic by 2055. But, beware if it happens, infernal regions of the planet will consume vast swaths of ecosystems and life forms like a monster arising from the darkest of caves.

Fortunately, this article is a fictional tale of what 4C would look like based upon predictions by prominent scientists 10 years ago. And, even though it may be considered heresy to suggest 4C within current lifetimes, who knows, maybe those same scientists no longer believe 4C could happen by 2055, but with GHGs zooming up, it would appear kinda inconsistent not to believe it any longer.

In 2010 the prestigious Met Office Hadley Centre/UK said average temperatures would likely be 4C above pre-industrial by 2055, “if greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) did not slow down.” Well, guess what’s happened to GHGs? Asking the question is the answer.

And, worse yet, it would bring in its wake a 16C rise in Arctic temperatures where at least twice the amount of carbon already in the atmosphere is frozen in time, waiting to be released via permafrost thawing. And, +16C would do it fast.

Accordingly, recent scientific field studies found thawing permafrost 70 years ahead of schedule in the High Arctic. Yes, 70 years ahead of schedule! (Source: Louise M. Farquharson et al, Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic, Geophysical Research Letters, June 10, 2019)

That’s absolutely horrible news and but one more example of mind-blowing shock and awe with rapidity of climate change vis a vis scientists’ expectations.

What happens if 4C hits by 2055?

The short answer has gotta be: Pandemonium reigns supreme!

According to the scientific forum 4 Degrees Hotter: “Less than a billion people will survive.” Expect, on average, more than a million human global warming deaths every week. As such, mass graveyards stacked with bodies would become a new normal.

Prominent climate scientists were quoted in the 4 Degrees Hotter article:

According to Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, one of Europe’s most eminent climate scientists, director of the Potsdam Institute: “At 4C Earth’s … carrying capacity estimates are below 1 billion people.”

Echoing that opinion, professor Kevin Anderson of the prestigious Tyndall Centre for Climate Change stated: “Only about 10% of the planet’s population would survive at 4C.”

A global average of 4C means land temperatures would be 5.5C-6C hotter, especially inland from coasts. The tropics would be too hot for people to live and most of the temperate regions would be desertified.

As a result, half of the planet would be uninhabitable. Populations would be driven towards the poles. Over 136 port cities each with populations of one-half to one million would require sea walls or translocation of nearly one-half billion people.

In Europe, new deserts would spread to Italy, Spain, Greece, and Turkey as the Sahara figuratively leaps across the Straits of Gibraltar. In Switzerland, summer would be as hot as Baghdad today. Europe’s population would be forced into a “Great Trek North” in order to survive.

Even as recently as this century, the European heat wave of 2003 killed 35,000, but it was only a sampler of what too much heat does to the human body. (Source: The 2003 European Heatwave Caused 35,000 Deaths, New Scientist, October 10, 2003)

At the time, and according to the New Scientist, in 2003: “The EPI says it is confident that the August heat wave has broken all records for heat-related deaths and says the world must cut the carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming.”

But, today, that’s a bad joke with CO2 in 2003 at 378 ppm. Today it’s 410. Therefore, “must cut the carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming” has been a total bust!

Temperature bands, called iostherms, will shift towards the poles faster than ecosystems can keep up. Thus, most ecosystems will collapse with breakdown of organic material, leading to ever-greater emissions of carbon self-perpetuating hands-free on autopilot, defined as runaway global warming.

Paleoclimate research suggests that the last time temperatures were 4C above pre-industrial; eventually, there were no large ice-sheets on the planet. Sea levels were 65-70 metres (213-229 feet) higher than today. Yet, ice sheets take considerable time to lose mass, even when it’s really hot. Thus, the sea level rise to 2100 would likely be only a few metres. But, still, get serious; it only takes a couple of metres for unmitigated disaster.

In a 4C world, temperatures would vary considerably on a worldwide basis. The Amazon, the Sahara-Sahei-Arabia region, India, and northern Australia would have higher temperatures than the average at any other place on Earth.

Already, Australia gave a recent “Preview of Hot Earth” late in the year 2018 in real time when record-breaking temperatures hit hard. More than 20,000 bats dropped dead in over two days as temps in northern Australia hit 42°C (107°F). Hundreds of thousands of bony herring, golden and silver perch and Murray cod died in Darling River because of extreme climate. Fruit on trees cooked from the inside out. (Source: Thousands of Australian Animals Die in Unprecedented Heatwave, The Scientist, Jan. 17, 2019)

That happened in today’s world while average global temperatures have only reached approximately 1C above post-industrial. What if 4C becomes reality or anything above 1C, like 2C or 3C? Then, what of northern Australia and other overly sensitive heat regions of the planet?

Meanwhile global average temperatures for July 2019 were the hottest ever since 1880. And, CO2 in the atmosphere is at its highest reading in 400,000 years, a period of time when atmospheric CO2 ran 180 ppm (low) to 280 ppm (high).

As of today, CO2 at 410 ppm has powered thru the 280-ppm ceiling of the past 400,000 years like a hot knife thru butter, and even more remarkable yet, it only took a couple hundred years to break a 400,000-year record. Hands down, that’s an all-time geologic speed record.

Thus, the human experience has turned into a vast experiment filled with unknowns because there are no comparisons throughout human history. Earthlings have shattered all records of the past 400,000 years. What happens next is a gamble.

All in all, it’s somewhat puzzling that scientists are not beating the drums about the threat of a 4C world hitting earlier than expected. Maybe they are… but privately.

(EPI: Environmental Performance Index)

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More articles by:ROBERT HUNZIKER

Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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*  Zie: 'Halve graad opwarming van de aarde zal 150 miljoen mensen het leven kosten......'

** Door de intensieve veehouderij (walgelijke dierenmishandeling op schunnige grootte) draagt Nederland onevenredig bij aan de opwarming van de aarde..... Elk jaar worden hier 500 miljoen dieren (ja, een half miljard!) groot en doodgemarteld, deze dieren stoten een enorme hoeveelheid methaangas uit, zoals eerder beschreven: een uiterst sterk broeikasgas......

Zie ook:
'Boris Johnson (Britse premier) liegt keihard dat de branden in Amazonegebied hem aan het hart gaan'

'Bolsonaro 8 maanden president: nu al 84% meer bosbranden in het Amazonewoud......'

'Het beschermen van de planeet is verworden tot een misdaad, veelal bestraft met moord'

'Niet eerder getoonde satellietfoto's laten zien dat grote delen van Arctisch gebied in brand staan >> klimaatkantelpunt gepasseerd'

'Grote Arctische gebieden in Siberië, Groenland, Canada en Alaska branden: klimaatkantelpunt nadert met rasse schreden'

''Methaangasboer' ontsnappend uit de Oost-Arctische Plaat kan de wereld zoals wij die kennen vernietigen'

'Aantal CO2 deeltjes in de atmosfeer op voor de mens nooit eerder vertoond hoog niveau'

'Cruiseschip Zuiderdam urenlang tegengehouden van afvaren door milieuactivisten'

'Australië geeft toestemming tot uitbaten enorm grote kolenmijn' (zie ook de links in dat bericht over het Grote Barrièrerif)

'Klimaatverandering: inwoners Bratsk (Siberië) stikken in de rook van bosbranden.......'

'Apocalyptisch smeltproces in (ant)arctisch gebied, na alweer een jaar dat tot de 3 warmste zal worden gerekend.......'

Hier nog wat links naar berichten over effecten van luchtvervuiling:
'Longartsen tegen gebruik van dieselbrandstof'

'130 km/u. brengt geen verkorting van de reistijd, maar wel extra vervuiling.....'

'Luchtvervuiling veroorzaakt naast long- en luchtwegklachten, ook psychische aandoeningen bij kinderen'

'Hartklachten ook door lage niveau's van luchtvervuiling.....'

'Nederlandse lucht nog vuiler dan eerder gedacht.....'

'Nederlander leeft 13 maanden korter door luchtvervuiling, dat zijn meer dan 260.000 mensenlevens' (lullig genoeg overlijden er werkelijk mensen vele jaren eerder doordat zij bijvoorbeeld longkanker hebben opgelopen door auto-uitstoot en dan gaat het om mensen die nooit gerookt hebben, ofwel ook onder de rokers kunnen er longkankers zijn ontstaan door de uitlaatgassen van auto's.... Luchtvervuiling waar je longarts de Kanter nooit over hoort......)