Zoals
hier de werkloosheidscijfers worden gemanipuleerd, zo wordt er in de
VS gegoocheld met banencijfers, niet onbelangrijk daar psychopaat
Trump zich al heeft uitgeroepen tot 'de beste banenpresident
ooit......'
Hier
worden de werkloosheidscijfers gemanipuleerd door de politiek, het
CBS en andere bureaus (zoals het CPB), die de zittende regering
dienen met goochel cijfers. Zo wordt je niet meegerekend als
werkloos zijnde, wanneer je partner 10 cent meer verdiend dan het bedrag
waarboven je geen recht kan doen gelden op een bijstandsuitkering (leuk ook voor vrouwen, die daarmee na hun werkloosheidsuitkering weer totaal afhankelijk worden van 'manlief...').... Zelfs al heb je
30 jaar aan een stuk gewerkt, na de werkloosheidsuitkering van een
paar jaar, krijg je geen cent bijstand, vanwege het bedrag dat je partner
verdient en wordt je zoals gezegd niet meegerekend als werkloos.... Meer dan schandalig!!
Over
bijstand gesproken: ook mensen die bijstand ontvangen, worden niet
als werkloos meegerekend, hetzelfde geldt voor invaliden die eerder in sociale werkplaatsen arbeid verrichtten, maar vooral door handelen van de PvdA in Rutte 2 thuis zijn komen te zitten.... (onder verantwoording van PvdA topleugenaar Asscher, minister van Sociale Zaken en PvdA hufter Klijnsma, staatssecretaris op datzelfde ministerie, Klijnsma, NB zelf invalide......)
In het
hieronder opgenomen artikel van Jack Rasmus, gaat hij in op de
banencijfers in de VS en komt tot de conclusie dat het ook hier om
gegoochel met cijfers gaat..... Zo wordt er bij het nieuw aantal gecreëerde banen niet bijverteld dat het om parttime banen gaat,
waardoor veel mensen die al werk hebben, een tweede baan of zelfs derde baan hebben genomen, dit daar
ze niet rond kunnen komen van hun slavenloon.....
Het
volgende artikel komt van CounterPunch en werd als gemeld
geschreven door Jack Rasmus:
MAY
8, 2019
The
recently released report on April jobs on first appearance, heavily
reported by the media, shows a record low 3.6% unemployment rate and
another month of 263,000 new jobs created. But there are two official
US Labor dept. jobs reports, and the second shows a jobs market much
weaker than the selective, ‘cherry picked’ indicators on
unemployment and jobs creation noted above that are typically
featured by the press.
Problems
with the April Jobs Report
While
the Current
Establishment Survey (CES) Report (covering
large businesses) shows 263,000 jobs created last month, the Current
Population Survey (CPS)
second Labor Dept. report (that covers smaller businesses) shows
155,000 of these jobs were involuntary part time.
This high
proportion (155,000 of 263,000) suggests the job creation number is
likely second and third jobs being created. Nor does it reflect
actual new workers being newly employed. The number is for new jobs,
not neeewly employed workers. Moreover, it’s mostly part time and
temp or low paid jobs, likely workers taking on second and third
jobs.
Even
more contradictory, the second CPS report shows that full time work
jobs actually declined last month by 191,000. (And the month before,
March, by an even more 228,000 full time jobs decline).
The
much hyped 3.6% unemployment (U-3) rate for April refers only to full
time jobs (35 hrs. or more worked in a week). And these jobs are
declining by 191,000 while part time jobs are growing by 155,000. So
which report is accurate? How can full time jobs be declining by
191,000, while the U-3 unemployment rate (covering full time only) is
falling? The answer: full time jobs disappearing result in an
unemployment rate for full time (U-3) jobs falling. A small number of
full time jobs as a share of the total labor force appears as a fall
in the unemployment rate for full time workers. Looked at another
way, employers may be converting full time to part time and temp
work, as 191,000 full time jobs disappear and 155,000 part time jobs
increase.
And
there’s a further problem with the part time jobs being created: It
also appears that the 155,000 part time jobs created last month may
be heavily weighted with the government hiring part timers to start
the work on the 2020 census–typically hiring of which starts in
April of the preceding year of the census. (Check out the Labor Dept.
numbers preceding the prior 2010 census, for April 2009, for the same
development a decade ago).
Another
partial explanation is that the 155,000 part time job gains last
month (and in prior months in 2019) reflect tens of thousands of
workers a month who are being forced onto the labor market now every
month, as a result of US courts recent decisions now forcing workers
who were formerly receiving social security disability benefits (1
million more since 2010) back into the labor market.
The
April selective numbers of 263,000 jobs and 3.6% unemployment rate is
further questionable by yet another statistic by the Labor Dept.: It
is contradicted by a surge of 646,000 in April in the category, ‘Not
in the Labor Force’, reported each month. That 646,000 suggests
large numbers of workers are dropping out of the labor force (a
technicality that actually also lowers the U-3 unemployment rate).
‘Not in the Labor Force’ for March, the previous month Report,
revealed an increase of an additional 350,000 added to ‘Not in the
Labor Force’ totals. In other words, a million–or at least a
large percentage of a million–workers have left the labor force.
This too is not an indication of a strong labor market and
contradicts the 263,000 and U-3 3.6% unemployment rate.
Bottom
line, the U-3 unemployment rate is basically a worthless indicator of
the condition of the US jobs market; and the 263,000 CES
(Establishment Survey) jobs is contradicted by the Labor Dept’s
second CPS survey (Population Survey).
GDP
& Rising Wages Revisited
In
two previous shows, the limits and contradictions (and thus a deeper
explanations) of US government GDP and wage statistics were featured:
See the immediate April 26, 2019 Alternative Visions show on
preliminary US GDP numbers for the 1st quarter 2019, where it was
shown how the Trump trade war with China, soon coming to an end, is
largely behind the GDP latest numbers; and that the more fundamental
forces underlying the US economy involving household consumption and
real business investment are actually slowing and stagnating. Or
listen to my prior radio show earlier this year where media claims
that US wages are now rising is debunked as well.
Claims
of wages rising are similarly misrepresented when a deeper analysis
shows the proclaimed wage gains are, once again, skewed to the high
end of the wage structure and reflect wages for salaried managers and
high end professionals by estimating ‘averages’ and limiting data
analysis to full time workers once again; not covering wages for part
time and temp workers; not counting collapse of deferred and social
wages (pension and social security payments); and underestimating
inflation so that real wages appear larger than otherwise.
Independent sources estimate more than half of all US workers
received no wage increase whatsoever in 2018–suggesting once again
the gains are being driven by the top 10% and assumptions of averages
that distort the actual wage gains that are much more modest, if at
all.
Ditto
for GDP analysis and inflation underestimation using the special
price index for GDP (the GDP deflator), and the various
re-definitions of GDP categories made in recent years and
questionable on-going GDP assumptions, such as including in GDP
calculation the questionable inclusion of 50 million homeowners
supposedly paying themselves a ‘rent equivalent’.
A
more accurate ‘truth’ about jobs, wages, and GDP stats is found
in the ‘fine print’ of definitions and understanding the weak
statistical methodologies that change the raw economic data on wages,
jobs, and economic output (GDP) into acceptable numbers for media
promotion.
Whether
jobs, wages or GDP stats, the message here is that official US
economic stats, especially labor market stats, should be read
critically and not taken for face value, especially when hyped by the
media and press. The media pumps selective indicators that make the
economy appear better than it actually is. Labor Dept. methods and
data used today have not caught up with the various fundamental
changes in the labor markets, and are therefore increasingly suspect.
It is not a question of outright falsification of stats. It’s about
failure to evolve data and methodologies to reflect the real changes
in the economy.
Government
stats are as much an ‘art’ (of obfuscation) as they are a
science. They produce often contradictory indication of the true
state of the economy, jobs and wages. Readers need to look at the
‘whole picture’, not just the convenient, selective media
reported data like Establishment survey job creation and U-3
unemployment rates.
When
so doing, the bigger picture is an US economy being held up by
temporary factors (trade war) soon to dissipate; jobs creation driven
by part time work as full time jobs continue structurally to
disappear; and wages that are being driven by certain industries
(tech, etc.), high end employment (managers, professionals),
occasional low end minimum wage hikes in select geographies, and
broad categories of ‘wages’ ignored.
Jack
Rasmus is author of
the recently published book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their
Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression’, Clarity Press,
August 2017. He blogs at jackrasmus.com and
his twitter handle is @drjackrasmus.
His website is http://kyklosproductions.com.
====================================
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